Evaluating the candidates

My students hanging out with John Edwards?

My Summer II Government students were surveyed the day prior to the 2004 Democratic Convention in Boston. I wanted to poll them even though I knew that taking their political pulse was not a proper sampling, as it was not based on randomly selected individuals.

Our survey included four questions: The first two were to identify voting pattern and party affiliation, the third related to characteristics applying to Bush and Kerry, and the fourth to determine my students’ willingness to “hang out” with Bush, Cheney, Kerry, and/or Edwards.

The class was practically evenly divided between those students planning to vote Republican (10 or 29 percent), Democrat (12 or 34 percent) and “undecided” (13 or 37 percent), for a total of 35 students.

Of those planning to vote Democratic in November 2004, three voted Democrat and one voted Republican in the 2000 presidential election. Among the ones planning to vote Republican, four voted Republican in 2000. Among the “undecided” in this upcoming presidential election, one voted Democrat in 2000. No one planned to vote for Ralph Nader.

Q: “How well do you think each of the following characteristics applies to George Bush and John Kerry?”

A: The students’ replies were the following: Kerry is more trustworthy than Bush (17 to 15); more intelligent than Bush (24 to 13); cares more about people like me (20 to 13); more knowledgeable (24 to 11); more moral (21 to 15). Yet, Bush is tougher than Kerry (23 to 9); more of a stronger leader than Kerry (19 to 12); barely less of a flip-flopper than Kerry (17 to 18), and is very close to special interests (26 to 8).

A national poll rated Bush more trustworthy and more moral than Kerry.

Students planning to vote for the Democratic ticket felt that Bush was tougher than Kerry; however, Kerry had the edge in all other characteristics, especially the ones about “caring for others,” trust, intelligence, knowledge and morals.

Those voting Republican in November 2004 believed that Kerry cared more about people and flip-flopped more often than Bush, but Bush had the advantage of being tougher, more trustworthy, and a stronger and moral leader than Kerry.

Both Democrats and Republicans will have to focus on the “undecided.” In our survey, 13 students still do not know if they will vote in November. Bush seems to have their preference on toughness, leadership and steadfastness, characteristics Kerry will have to overcome between now and November if he is to win.

Q: “Who would you rather hang out with for an hour over a beer or a cup of coffee?”

A: John Edwards is the favorite of the students (20 or 57 percent), followed closely by Kerry (19), Bush (18) and Cheney (15). Edwards is the favorite among the Democratic voters, and among Republicans he is favored over Cheney (6 to 4). Interestingly enough, he is not a favorite among the “undecided.”

What have we learned? We learned that in a class that is practically evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, only a few of them voted in 2000, and a few more plan to vote in November (12 Democrats, 10 Democrats, and 13 undecided). We gained a pretty good profile of both presidential candidates with their strengths and weaknesses, and John Edwards was the one that the majority in my class wanted to hang out with.

— Gabriel Bach is a full-time government professor